How big should a first order be?

Order the smallest quantity that gives you a real answer about whether the product sells. For most first-time importers that means fewer products and shallower quantities than they planned, with money kept back for a fast second order on whatever moves.

A wide first order looks like ambition. In practice it converts cash into stock before you know which stock is worth holding.

Why a big first order is the common mistake

Three things happen when a first order is too large.

Your cash stops moving. Money in a carton is money you cannot use. You cannot reorder the item that sold out, you cannot fix a quality problem, and you cannot pay for the marketing that would have moved the goods.

You learn less, not more. Twenty products with ten units each does not tell you which products work. The sample is too small per item and the noise is too high. Five products with forty units each gives you a clearer signal on each one.

Dead stock is expensive twice. You paid for it, and now you pay to store it. Then you discount it to clear it, which trains your customers to wait for discounts.

What size actually tells you something

There is no universal number. The order needs to be large enough that the result is not chance.

A useful test: if this quantity sells out, will you believe it? If it does not sell, will you believe that either?

Ten units of a product will sell out because two friends bought one each. That teaches you nothing. Two hundred units of the same product sitting untouched after three months is a clear answer.

For most consumer products in a small market, somewhere between fifty and three hundred units per SKU is where the signal becomes readable. Below that you are guessing. Above that you are buying information you already had.

Work out the number for your own situation:

1. Estimate how many units you expect to sell per month.
2. Multiply by three. That is roughly one quarter of trading.
3. Compare that against the supplier's minimum order quantity.

If your three-month estimate is well below the minimum, the product is not ready for you yet, or the supplier is not the right one.

How to choose which products to test

Do not test the products you personally like. Test across the range so the results tell you where demand sits.

Pick along the lines that actually differ:

• Price. One cheap item, one mid, one expensive. You are learning what your customers will pay.
• Category. If you plan four categories, test one product in each rather than four in one.
• Risk. Include one item you are confident about and one you are unsure about. The confident one funds the experiment. The uncertain one is the information.

Avoid testing several near-identical items. Three colours of the same product is one test, not three, and you have tripled the cash for one answer.

What to do about minimum order quantities

The minimum order quantity, or MOQ, is the smallest quantity a supplier will produce. It is usually negotiable, and first-time importers rarely try.

Five things that work:

Ask what drives it. Sometimes it is a raw material batch, sometimes a machine setup, sometimes a policy someone set years ago. If it is setup cost, offer to pay the setup separately and take fewer units.

Offer a higher unit price for a lower quantity. Many suppliers will accept this. You are paying for the inconvenience, and it is often cheaper than the stock you would otherwise carry.

Take stock colours and standard packaging. Customisation is frequently what drives the minimum. A standard product in a plain box may have no meaningful minimum at all.

Order across several products from the same supplier. A factory that will not make 200 units of one item will often make 200 units across four items, because the total run justifies the setup.

Ask about existing stock. Suppliers who sell into their domestic market sometimes have finished goods available in small quantities.

If the minimum is genuinely fixed and far above what you need, you have two options. Find a different supplier, or find someone who can combine your order with other buyers to reach the quantity.

Why reorder speed matters more than order size

The importer who can restock in six weeks can afford to order small. The importer who takes four months to restock has to order big, because running out means losing the customer.

So the useful question is not only how much to order. It is how fast you can order again.

Things that shorten the cycle:

• A supplier who holds raw material rather than buying it per order
• A written specification, so the second order needs no new discussion
• An agreed inspection standard, so quality control does not restart each time
• Payment terms already settled
• A freight arrangement already in place

Set all of this up on the first order even though it feels like too much process for a small quantity. The first order is where you build the machine. The second order is where it pays.

The arithmetic worth doing before you commit

Take the order you are planning and work out three numbers.

Cash tied up. Deposit plus balance plus freight plus duty plus inspection. This is the money that leaves your business and does not come back until the goods sell.

Time to first revenue. Production time plus shipping time plus customs plus the time to get goods on sale. For sea freight from China this is commonly three to five months from deposit to first sale.

Worst case. If nothing sells, what have you lost, and can the business continue?

If the worst case would end the business, the order is too big. That is the whole test.

When to go bigger

There are real reasons to order more than the minimum viable quantity.

• The price break at a higher quantity is large enough to change your economics, and you have checked the arithmetic rather than assuming
• The tooling cost is fixed and heavy, so unit cost falls sharply with volume
• You have already sold the goods, through a purchase order or pre-orders
• The lead time is so long that a small order would leave you out of stock for months

Each of these is a specific reason with numbers behind it. "I think it will sell well" is not one.

What to do first

Write down the products you were planning to order and the quantity for each. Then cut the list until the total cash at risk is an amount you could lose without the business stopping.

Whatever remains is close to the right first order.

Verified August 2026. Next review February 2027.